Arike Ogunbowale was a key contributor to the USA gold medal last summer in the FIBA Americas in Cancun. *Photo by Haley Weit.
The FIBA U17 World Championship groups have been finalized and although there are still basketball federations finalizing final rosters of 12, here is a look at the possible matchups for this years Worlds. The hardest part of projecting each group is the battle for second and third as the top shelf seems pretty easy to predict based on U16 qualifiers last summer. The top two teams from each group advance to the Championship bracket while the bottom two will enter the consolation bracket.
Group A The Gauntlet
Predictions
1st Canada
2nd Czech Republic
3rd Hungary
4th Korea
The United States saw Canada in the championship game last summer in the FIBA Americas qualifier. The Canadians are led by 6-foot-3 post Eternati Wilock and should have a chance to compete for a medal at this years World Championships. Wilock, who is considering schools such as Louisville, Michigan State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Texas, will need to be a consistent threat around the rim in order for the Canadian side to make it through what could be the most competitive preliminary round of the four.
Joining Canada in Group A is a scrappy Czech Republic team that finished second to Spain in last years U16 European Championship. The Czech U17 team will easily be one of the toughest match ups in all of the World Championships as it has quality guard play and a true post player inside who rebounds and scores. Not to mention the country is hosting and should have great support for some sort of home court advantage.
Hungary, who lost to Spain in the semifinal last summer but went on to beat Italy in the bronze medal game, is no slouch either. With one of the most balanced starting lineups the World Championships will see, the Hungarian squad appears to be very capable of ruining the plans of either Canada or the Czech Republic and advancing to the second round of the U17 World Championships. An upset head-to-head win over either team plus a win over Korea, who seems to be the weakest of the four teams, would give Hungary a chance to compete for a World Championship in the final phase of the tournament.
Group B Spain and Italy Poised to Advance
Predictions
1st Spain
2nd Italy
3rd Brazil
4th Egypt
Spain, the biggest obstacle to the United States as far as a gold medal is concerned, finds itself in a favorable group for the World Championships. Last summer, despite both teams being in the European U16 championships, never played each other head-to-head. This summer that all changes and should provide some fireworks with the winner more than likely taking the first seed from this group.
Joining Italy and Spain in this group is an athletic Brazilian group that should be a quality opponent for the Italians and a possible upset if Italy doesnt show well in that matchup. Look for the Egyptian team to be the least likely team to win this group.
Group C The Weakest Group
Predictions
1st Australia
2nd Japan
3rd Slovak Republic
4th Mexico
The Australian U17 team has the potential to be as deep as Spain but without the go-to scorers that the Spanish will have the Aussies are a bit more susceptible to an upset.
The biggest sleeper of the tournament will be the Japanese team as the 2012 Japanese team played the spoiler of the 2012 World Championships. The Japanese are a feisty bunch of guards who trap and speed up the game. Handling Japans pressure and taking advantage of its inability to rebound the ball at a consistent level should allow teams to beat them up inside and come away with a win.
Slovak Republic, which was supposed to be the host team before an issue with FIBA came about after the Slovak Federation was cited for not paying its dues in a timely fashion, will be in a battle to hedge out Mexico to not finish in last place in this group. Mexico is playing in its first World Championship at any age level after hosting the Americas in Cancun last summer and earning a Bronze medal.
Group D The Battle For Second
Projections
1st USA
2nd France
3rd China
4th Mali
Next to the The Gauntlet, or group A, this is the toughest group to pick. Obviously the United States will have the depth and talent to advance out of the group stage, but after the USA, the France versus China showdown might be the game of the group stage. Both sides have at least one potential high-level Division I prospect and are lacking the depth to compliment that piece. With both teams most likely to lose to the United States and beat Mali, the winner of the head-to-head game will decide who advances out of the group.
Overall Predictions
Gold: USA
Silver: Spain
Bronze: Canada
